channel top at 5525 touched ?

EW analysis for Aug 8...Nifty...

'E' target of 5335-40 ?

Nifty weekly...

Will we know direction in a couple of weeks ? Negative div in weekly.

Nifty negative divergence begins...

Money managers talk on TV...

From comments section of How to lose money listening to Goldman

When Inside Big Money talks it has two objective: create exits for its positions and generate transactional fees, invariably at the expense of Outside Small Money.

Big Money talk is morally and intellectually akin to those lanterns and hill-top bonfires wreckers used to shine off the Carolina and English coasts in the 19th century to lure ships onto reefs and rocks and, after wrecking them, either offer to earn "salvage" fees or outright plunder the cargo and murder the crews. The ships, of course, thought that the lights and fires were beacons of safety pointing the way to a safe passage.

Pirates do not change: only their technologies and uniforms. Blackbeard never dies.

The market is the king...

The stock market seems to have a remarkable talent for persuading investors to change their minds at precisely the wrong time.

Of course, the stock market doesn’t actually cajole, coax or convince anyone. It’s only a mirror. Nervous investors end up doing the wrong things all by themselves.

Nifty targets...5490-5520...

Nifty FII investment in index futures...

Caution folks...Although the market was up, FIIs were short today. Watch for tomorrow afternoon action.

FII Index futures ( in crores ) investment this month by day -

-1604 ( 25 June )
25 ( 26 Jun )
-1458
96
-1586
-463
-370
1061
-222
1455
1060
609 ( 12 July )
-50 ( 13 July )

See the trend the past 4 days !!! People going long now
might end up holding the baggage.

No guarantees...

Thanks to my friend Girish for maintaining this data.

Weekend reads...

Did you know ? California’s GDP is twice that of India's.

Is the sky falling or sun shining ?

Nuke to save BP

Three best performing ETFs in 2010...india, china, brazil are not one of them

Nifty July 2...falling wedge

Nifty July 1...

Nifty is holding the channel and trendline well. But OI data shows FIIs selling into these highs. Today it can remain in 5270-5320 and still be in the channel. Maybe a good day to get out of any longs and go short OR wait on the sidelines for further direction this week.

S&P tech table

As seen here, 1070 ( week low EMA ), 1095 ( week 5EMA ) and 1126 ( week HEMA ). All crucial.

Nifty right shoulder forming ?

Is this the beginning of the right shoulder ?

Nifty might be overbought but...

Just as a comparison between March/April and June/July, overbought can be misleading. For example, the whole of March/mid-april, market was overbought but Nifty made new highs. We have a similar situation now, but we have been overbought only for a few days now. Also note that RSI is not showing any negative divergence. So one has to be careful to go short in this market. FIIs have started selling stock futures just as in March but they are still buying in index futures. In April, FIIs went short in both index and stock futures. Then we started seeing the big negative divergences in daily charts. So until then, there is an equal chance for this market to go up as to go down.

Nifty prediction for June 21-25...

This is the first time I am making predictions. One needs to do that to get confidence. So here we go...

So my prediction: This week June 21-25, we will retrace to 5180 and then a runup again to 5250-5290 area.

5300 was exactly the highs formed in Jan. So fact that we stopped at 5300 on Friday, shows a potential H&S forming as shown in chart below. The vertical lines show periods when RSI was less/above 50. Also ADX has reached 20. Maybe the end of the trend.

Nifty staying in channel...

Bulls still in control. Holding 5200 range crucial.

Nifty in a range...

Nifty June 16

Nifty yesterday perfectly traded between the 2 trend lines as shown. Given positive world cues, it is expected to trade higher. Supports at 5185,5150 and resistances at 5245, 5270. Also 5245-50 is the channel's upper trendline. So it is going to be tricky. But uptrend still. Currently the channel looks like a rising wedge to 5340 or so, but if we break the upper line, then this could become a parallel channel. But it still feels like we cannot keep going vertically ( why not ). So a correction might be due to the bottom of the channel to 5150-90 and then go up again to 5350. Today'a action will be interesting.

Nifty analysis...June 14....

A bit complicated chart ( too many lines ), but there is a symmetrical triangle - hence looking for direction, and a developing wedge. Upper side, there is resistance at 5135, 5165 ( approx where 50DMA and the 5300 highs line ) and 5215 ( clusters were formed in previous runs ). Supports seem to be at 5080, 5050, 4960. If we get to 5165, a higher level inverse-H&S also seems to forming.

Awesome trading video

A video by the author of Market Wizards ( please register to watch )...Market Wizards


* To be a good trader, you have to trade inline with your natural personality.

* Successful trading is effortless. So it is all in the preparation.

* Before you get into a position, you should know when to get out.

* Learn from others. But take decisions on your own. Do not play the other person's trades.

* It neves bothers me to lose, but I know I will make it back.

* You should know you have won the game before you start.

* The need "not to make a mistake, not to lose" leads to people losing money.

* There is a difference between bad trades and losing trades.

* You do nothing till you take money off the floor. Wait for the opportunity.

* Amateur traders go broke taking large losses. Pro traders go broke taking small profits.

* Do not be loyal to your position.

* People love doing comfortable things. Markets supports doing uncomfortable things.

* Do you love trading ? It should not be about the money.

* Intuition is experience at a subconscious level.