Good vs Bad News in market currently...

Bad -

US housing mortgage applications bad
US debt almost reaches US GDP
Oil spill bad
Europe pigs - greece, spain, hungary, portugal
Middle East tension
Korea tension
US jobs situation dismal
Stocks down
Dollar strong

Good -
Germany factory orders jumped
US earnings EPS good
India/China growth stories

If there are too many bad things happenning, be a contrarion and go long ?

Cramer...6 things that should happen before becoming bullish

FinReg Reform Finalized
Spanish Banks Stabilized
Unemployment Falling
The Oil Spill Must Be Stopped
A ‘Soft Landing’ in China
Need to See the Euro Hold


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S&P tech table for week ending June 4...

Still in a downtrend till we break 1100 convincingly.
Supports and Resistances as listed above.

+ve News...u kiddin me...

Some +ve news ( this is really scraping the bottom of the barrel ).

* S&P futures comes of low ( was 1.3% down, now 0.8% down )
* BP reports higher oil containment
* Europe touches 4 year low. Maybe someone will start accumulating ( hope - ouch )
* US Employment news was bad - but hourly income and hours worked went up.
* JPMorgan reiterates S&P 1300 by year end. 22% from here.

Trade plan for June 7...

1. World cues negative
2. Asian markets down 1.5-4%. Downtrend today
3. Expect Nifty to open at 5050 or lower. ( 2% )
4. Supports - 5050, 5030 ( 20d SMA ), 5000 ( 200d SMA ), 4960
5. Resistances - 5090, 5120, 5160

* According to the wise man, "4885-4935" may act as an inflection point.

* According to Lakshmi MaaM, "In the very short term the rising wedge and negative divergence may lead to a pullback". But long term, The bias has turned positive and one can trade long with a stop loss of 4950.

Planned descent ?

About the markets on Friday in US...looks like same could happen in Nifty...

I doubt there's ever been a day like Friday before. Panic is usually followed by quick reversals. But calculated, organized retreat means gone for good. This is well-controlled retreat. The calm is scary. A perfect storm is brewing.

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Dilbert invests in BP...

Dilbert creator Scott Adams...

"Technical Analysis has exactly the same scientific validity as pretending you are a witch and forecasting market moves from chicken droppings."

"CEOs are highly skilled in a special form of lying called leadership"

"two truths about investing: 1) Past performance is no indication of future performance. 2) You need to consider a company's track record. Right, yes, those are opposites."

"investing in companies you love is riskier than investing in companies you hate"

"iPhone keyboard is an elaborate practical joke"


Read the Dilbert article

Nifty 2 year trends...

Divergences are not that simple...

I trust the RSI divergences. A bit too much. And I have been hit ( hard ) at times because of that. Especially in the smaller time frames while day trading. It seems to work most of the times, but I dont know how much it will work ( 2 pts or 100 pts ? ). Here is a nice article that goes over these same issues...

"However, most traders fall prey to the concept of divergence and see it as the end or reversal of the prevailing trend of the market. All would be right in the world if markets were to reverse from simple divergence. But there are times when sentiment and momentum are so strong that the market continues to make new highs (or lows), which will keep the RSI at overbought (or oversold) levels for extended periods of time."


http://www.traderslog.com/RSI-Indicator-Trading-Model.htm

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Support points for Nifty...

Last close: 5135
Fibo 78.6 & upper trendline of downtrend channel - 5060
20d SMA - 5030
Fibo 61.8 and 200d SMA - 5002
Fibo 50 - 4961
Fibo 38.2 - 4930

The US dollar is a terribly, terribly flawed currency...

From Jim Rogers...
"I’m sure the world does need to replace the US dollar. I’m not the only one who knows that. The US dollar is a terribly, terribly flawed currency. The US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Something has got to be done. We cannot continue with a currency which is so deeply flawed and something is going to have to be changed."

"The government lies about it ( inflation ) in the US. Some countries lie, many countries don’t: Australia, China, India and Norway. Many countries don’t lie about it and acknowledge that we have inflation. Others lie about it, the UK and the US, but if you go shopping you know prices are up."


http://seekingalpha.com/article/208588-interview-jim-rogers-on-currencies-and-inflation?source=hp_wc

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Oops...hungary...

Reuters said Hungary PM said his country had only a slim chance of avoiding a Greek-style debt crisis. No wonder everything tanked. - seekingalpha.com/stocktalks

s&p tech table for June 3...

Day trend is up now. If it closes above 1110, then week trend also could turn positive.

Nifty June 4...some obvious analysis...

Looks bullish with a new uptrend channel forming.

God at work...

From seekingalpha.com,

"According to regulatory filings, GS sold 4.7mm shares ($250mm) of BP in Q1 b4 the spill. < Most curious."

Nifty trading range

5070 is the trendline above connecting the downtrend highs.
5010 is 200 DMA.
Inverted H&S forming with target 5200+ if 5100 is broken.
RSI is over 30. So if Money flow.

No retail investors...who is funding ?

Retail investors have become so scared of the stock market. One quote today...
"It just seems like it's computers versus computers," he said. "This volatility is probably here to stay, unfortunately, but that doesn't mean that the market is going to collapse."

"volatility is likely to continue through the summer in part because some everyday investors who put money into the market before its drop in May are giving up. That leaves the pros who use automated trades to try to profit from moves in stocks."

Question is: WHO IS FUNDING THIS ? High Network Individuals ???? So this is casino gambling for the rich using computers.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-turn-sharply-lower-in-apf-2030354906.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

Are markets tied to economies or geopolitical situations ?

This is a comment from a user "vtorch" in seeking alpha site which I am posting here...( http://seekingalpha.com/article/207657/comments )

"It seems that markets and economies often move independently of each other. Citing an example in one of Ken Fisher's books, in China, GDP grew by double digits from 2003 to 2005, but at the same time, the domestic stock market declined and investors lost money during a period of rapid economic expansion.

Game Set Match...Wall Street +Zillion, Main Street -20%....

Main Street lost 20% in the last decade. Goldman Sachs makes 100 million/day from whom...Main Street ofcourse...so whose side are the Governments on...Centuries from now, This time and generation will be the reference for stupidity - how human beings were at the beginning of the 20th century - the majority who were poor actually funded the really rich crooked bankers who made back 100 million/day from the poor !!!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-is-dead-ahead-sell-get-liquid-now-2010-05-25

Follow the wise...

The wise man ( tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.com ) advised me to short Nifty last week at 5070-5090 ranges. Did not ? Why ? Have no idea. Fear - since the market was going up. But I myself saw that there was resistance there. So finally when the market fell today ( and still falling ), I am trying to catch the bottom to get pennies. And ofcourse my SL was taken out. So when I am going to follow the wise ?

-- gd